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从“博收益”走向“压舱石”？ 黄金理财产品净值回暖却遇发行“冰点”_我的网站

一 |     An already precarious situation regarding food and water supplies for the residents of Gaza has exacerbated into a humanitarian crisis due to the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel, experts told ABC News.The horrors civilians are facing as a result of fighting between Hamas, a terrorist organization that is based in Gaza, and Israel extend far beyond the immediate bloodshed.Days after Hamas launched a surprise terrorist attack on Israel, experts on war and food insecurity are concerned that the fighting will lead to widespread suffering for civilians, especially those living in the Gaza Strip, one of the most densely populated regions in the world.As the fighting continues and borders remain closed, residents in Gaza are expected to run out of food, potable water and essential supplies in a matter of weeks, Shada Moghraby, spokesperson for the World Food Programme's New York office, told ABC News.This is why food and water will be so scarce in the region going forward, according to the experts:

Gaza was facing a food security, water crisis before the most recent conflict began

There was already a humanitarian crisis brewing in the Gaza Strip before the fighting commenced.With about 2.4 million people packed into just 140 square miles, residents living in the Gaza Strip, wedged between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea, were experiencing threats to their food and water supply even before Hamas' surprise terrorist attack on Israel led to war.Thousands of years of conflict in the region has also degraded the land, leaving "reverberating environmental effects" and making it nearly impossible for Gaza to produce its own food supply, Doug Weir, research and policy director of The Conflict and Environment Observatory, told ABC News. The recurring periods of violence have led to high levels of disruption to infrastructure, particularly water and sanitation, as well as power plants, Weir said."You have this highly degraded strip of land trying to sustain a very high, very dense population," he said. "That's kind of the situation that population has been living in, to this day."There is no surface water -- lakes or rivers -- to draw from in the region, David Gampe, a geographer and climate scientist at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, Germany, told ABC News. The only resource to extract water from is the groundwater, Gampe said.Therefore, the aquifer supplying water to the territory is over-extracted. Only about 4% of the water extracted from the aquifer is actually potable, Weir said.The lack of an adequate supply of clean water has been the focus of the argument on the actual habitability of Gaza for years, Weir said. Nearly all of the drinking water in the territory is bottled, Gampe said.About 80% of the population in Gaza was in need of humanitarian aid before the bombings began days ago, Samer Abdeljaber, regional director for the World Food Programme, told ABC News."The situation was already dire. and now these escalations make things really, very difficult on those people who are already suffering from food insecurity," Moghraby said.The economic consequences of the constant conflict have also taken a toll on the region, making it difficult for it to invest in advancements in infrastructure, Moghraby said.

Borders are now even more restricted

The vast majority of the food supply is "highly dependent" on imports, Weir said. This is making the blockade around the territory even more injurious for the people stuck inside.Earlier this week, Israel stopped entry of food, water, fuel and medicine into Gaza. The sole remaining access from Egypt was shut down on Tuesday.There is barely any power in Gaza, as its sole power plant has run out of fuel as a result of the blockade, the Gaza Ministry of Energy said on Wednesday.As soon as the power is switched off, infrastructure -- including water treatment and transit -- can't work effectively, Weir said.In 2020, the U.N. Environment Programme released a status report for Gaza and the West Bank, defining the consequences of the intricate political process necessary to gain access to the region.Within the borders, humanitarian aid groups are running out of food items, as are markets, Abdeljaber said, adding that the unfolding situation is "devastating at the moment."The World Food Programme is seeking a humanitarian corridor to allow supplies into Gaza, Moghraby said."We're doing everything we can to make sure that we are reaching the people who seek shelter in the U.N. designated shelters," he said.

Bombings in Gaza are making the situation even more dire

The damage to the infrastructure inside Gaza is impeding the food production and distribution networks, Moghraby said.Bakeries in Gaza have told the WFP that they are running out of fuel, electricity and wheat flour and will soon be unable to provide the organization with bread, Abdeljaber said.But the supplies of food and water are running out, and fast.There are limited stocks of food items inside Gaza, which makes the approval of a humanitarian corridor into the territory even more essential.Those who manage to get food are having to leave their homes and seek shelter from the assaults from the Israeli Defense Forces, a "very risky" endeavor, Abdeljaber said.WFP is also having difficulties in coordinating its movements to make sure that the frontline humanitarian workers remain safe. Nearly a dozen colleagues have lost their lives, Abdeljaber said.Right after the bombing in Gaza began, the World Food Programme provided 73,000 people with ready-to-eat canned food, as well as fresh bread from bakeries within Gaza, Abdeljaber said. The next day, that number jumped to 175,000 people, and on Thursday, the WFP is expected to provide meals to up to 205,000 people, Abdeljaber said.The organization is planning to scale its response to provide more than 800,000 people in Gaza and the West Bank with food, water and essential supplies like cash, Moghraby said.The WFP has experienced setbacks in funding in the past year, Moghraby said.In June, the organization was forced to suspend about 150,000 residents of Gaza from assistance due to lack of funding, Abdeljaber said. The funding typically comes from governments and the private sector, Moghraby said. However, the organization does not work with the governments represented by the de facto authorities on the ground.Before the crisis began, WFP was in need of about $32 million in additional funding to meet its goal. Now, the organization is seeking an additional $17 million just to be able to source the required amount of food for the next four weeks, Abdeljaber said.

Climate change is also threatening the region

Food insecurity and water supply issues are expected to persist in the long term, and not just because of the conflict.Climate change is intensifying existing environmental problems in the region, including increased water stress, a study published by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health last year found.The Mediterranean climate leads to wet winters and dry summers, in which there is virtually no precipitation over the hottest months of the year, said Gampe, one of the authors of the 2022 study.A rise in temperature is going to exacerbate the water supply in the region by leading to increased evaporation within the aquifer.With up to 25% less precipitation in the winter months, when the water recharge is supposed to occur, the aquifer could soon run dry of potable water, the research shows."The groundwater exploitation is already exceeding the recharge," he said.Inadequate water supplies often have cascading consequences, including indirect health effects on populations, such as an uptick in diarrhea cases in young children, Gampe said."That will severely affect health and cause a massive problem in the region," he said.。    　　文章来源：中国经营报　　中经记者 张漫游 北京报道　　金价反弹正在修复一度被市场冷落的“固收+黄金”理财产品。《中国经营报》记者从普益标准了解到一组数据，6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%。　　国际金价自8月初低点4041美元/盎司启动反弹，月内一度涨超10%重返4600美元/盎司上方。不过，与净值回暖形成反差的是，发行端持续降温。《中国经营报》记者梳理发现，6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。业内人士认为，黄金在理财组合中的角色，正在从“博取收益的工具”转向“穿越周期的压舱石”。　　配置逻辑悄然生变　　黄金理财产品的收益曲线在过去半年经历了一轮陡峭的过山车。

二 | 普益标准数据显示，2月黄金理财平均收益5.38%，彼时黄金理财最高收益达8.16%；随后黄金理财收益率可谓骤降，3—5月黄金理财平均收益分别为2.17%、2.56%、2.32%；6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%，黄金理财最高收益达最高4.60%。

三 | 　　与产品收益率回暖形成对照的是发行端的冷清。据Wind数据统计，2026年以来，共有34只黄金理财产品成立新发，但6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。记者采访了解到，目前，理财公司普遍以债券票息打底、黄金敞口控制在低仓位，在多资产框架下以灵活节奏“逢低配置”。　　东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞告诉记者，由“博收益”到“压舱石”的定位转变，过去黄金在理财组合中更多被视为交易性增强工具，金价上涨时增配博取弹性，下跌时减持控制回撤，本质上是将黄金当作高波动的另类资产来轮动。但2026年以来，随着美国财政可持续性争议从预期走向数据验证、全球央行持续购金、去美元化趋势推进，黄金的战略配置属性被重新定价。黄金在主权信用风险和通胀尾部情景下具备对冲价值，这使其在“固收+”组合中承担的角色从“收益增强器”转向“风险分散器”。　　但他同时提醒道，“压舱石”不等于“稳定器”。

四 | “黄金自身波动率并不低，它压的是信用货币体系的舱，而非组合净值波动的舱。”瞿瑞指出，近1个月0.61%、近3个月0.75%的净值涨幅中，相当部分来自8月金价快速反弹的贡献，而非可持续的超额收益。风险定价层面，理财公司需要重新评估黄金仓位风险，即使5%至10%的黄金仓位，在金价单日波动2%至4%的环境下也可能主导组合的短期净值波动。　　金价后市多空交织　　对于金价后续走势，市场机构整体偏乐观。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表机构观点认为，下半年涨势尚未结束。随着投资者重新评估美国货币政策及美元前景，金价打破近期的整理局面，再度走高。美国劳动力市场数据走软，也强化了市场预期美联储有望在通胀压力可控下维持利率不变。需求端因素亦为金价增添助力。黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）再度出现资金净流入，最初主要由中国买盘驱动，近期欧洲买盘也逐渐增强。与此同时，各国央行购金热度不减。

五 | 世界黄金协会数据显示，6月全球央行净购金量达到51吨。7月中国央行增持黄金储备20吨，为2023年10月以来单月最大增幅。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室同时列出了金价延续涨势的三项条件：第一，美元需继续走弱。我们的基准情景是，美联储将在9月按兵不动。

六 | 不过，年内是否加息仍存在不确定性。第二，市场对美国实际利率的预期下降。

七 | 实际利率是扣除通胀预期后的利率水平。作为非生息资产，实际利率越高，意味着持有黄金的机会成本就越高。尽管实际利率与金价并非在所有时期都保持稳定的相关性，但这仍是值得关注的重要指标。第三，黄金的投资需求还需进一步增强。

八 | ETF资金流入出现改善，但此势头能否持续，还有待观察。我们的分析框架显示，每季度投资买盘需达到约500吨，才能支持金价持续站稳于5000美元/盎司或以上。

九 | 　　前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，去美元化是大势所趋，国际金价未来突破5000美元/盎司只是时间问题。他认为，本轮金价上涨的驱动因素主要有两方面：一是美国公布的非农就业、零售数据不及预期，通胀有所回落，美联储降息预期再度增强，9月会议大概率按兵不动，若四季度经济数据仍疲软，12月不排除降息可能；二是美国财政部加大回购国债力度，促使此前走高的美债收益率回落，对金价形成正面支撑。

十 | 此外，全球央行购金步伐未停，为金价提供中长期底部支撑。据世界黄金协会7月30日报告，二季度全球央行及其他官方机构合计净增黄金储备289吨，同比增长62%。他建议，普通投资者在投资组合中配置10%至20%的黄金类资产，以对冲美元即其他纸币长期贬值的风险。　　对于理财公司“逢低配置”策略的可持续性，瞿瑞分析称，其核心取决于黄金定价中枢能否稳定抬升，而非择时能力本身。

十一 | 若财政信用弱化和央行购金构成中长期底部支撑，逢低配置就是在中枢抬升趋势中以较低成本建仓的有效策略，理财公司较长的负债端期限也提供了承受短期波动的空间。但这一策略面临两个风险：一是若美国通胀反弹迫使美联储重启加息或全球流动性阶段性收紧，金价可能显著回调，“逢低”之后还有更低；二是8月以来COMEX黄金期货价格快速拉升至4700美元/盎司附近，短期获利回吐压力加大，“逢低配置”的窗口正在收窄，高位追涨风险增大。

十二 | 　　（编辑：杨井鑫 审核：何莎莎 校对：翟军）责任编辑：朱赫楠。

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